The bottom line of population control should be in order to replace competence from generation to generation

The bottom line of population control should be in order to replace competence from generation to generation
A very strange characteristic is if there are He YaFu's China population's educational circles: Almost all the demographers think " There is too much Chinese population " ,Advocate reducing China's population in a large amount. Until to what extent population reduce Chinese ' That is to reach the so-called one " Optimum population " ),Different demographers have different views. For example, Song Jian thinks the optimum population of China are 650 million to 700 million, Li WeiXiong thinks the optimum population of China are 500 million to 800 million, Li XiaoPing ( Network name " half a poet " )Think the optimum population of China are 300 million Policy of China fertility rate only 1.4 about now, we know it replaces fertility rate of competence to be 2.1 from generation to generationing at the demography, since policy fertility rate of 1.4 is well below replacing competence from generation to generation, this means a goal of China's population policy is to want a large amount of to reduce the existing size of population. However, except China, no country (country where including population density is much larger than China) in the world It is a goal of regarding reducing national population the population policy in a large amount as. Will find if review human history, several thousand years ago to now, total trends of the human quantity are more and more, people's living standard is higher and higher at the same time, it means population growth does not hinder economic development. Up to now, there is no any in economy believable reason proves this trend will be stopped. So-called what China's history is had " Flourishing age " ,Often population increases fast period; And decline in and the period of chaos caused by war, it is often the population reduced period sharply. Someone says: "China's ancient peasant uprising is because there is too much population, can not support so many people, so peasant's uprising just takes place. " However, the peasant uprising in history is mainly caused by annexation of land, polarization between the rich and the poor and tyranny, but not because there is too much population. For example, when Chen Sheng, Wu Guang rise in revolt, China's population is 20 million. So long as science and technology is progressing, the earth (or a country) The population that can support must be increasingly large, and people's living standard is increasingly high too, history for thousands of years has already proved this. This because in normal cases, value not created to greater than he (she) in the all one's life such as one Consumption,so, it is in population growth development against mankind play a positive role. Certainly, if it is too fast for population to increase, juvenile raise than too high, too can lead to the fact the temporary pressure to economic development. In this case, it is essential to control population's growth appropriately. However, there should be a bottom line to control population growth, this bottom line replaces competence from generation to generation. A national population has since already reached certain scale, this proves this country can support the population of this quantity, otherwise it is impossible for population to rise to this scale. Moreover, with the progress of the society, the population who a country can support must be increasingly large, the living standard is increasingly high too. For example, the population that China can support now was certainly larger than 50 years ago, the population that China can support is certainly larger than now 50 years later. Took grain as examples, Chinese grain total output was only 113 million tons in 1949, reached 508 million tons in 1999, having increased by 4.5 times in 50, meanwhile population increased by 2.4 times. It is obvious, the increase of the grain yield is over population's growth. During these 50 years, the total land area does not basically change, population increased, the per person land has been reduced, but per person's grain has been improved. Progress of agricultural technology like this, mainly. We are convinced, the grain yield 50 years later is sure to be more than now. Since the population that future China can support is larger than now, and the living standard is higher than now, then the bottom line of the population policy should be keeping this size of population, but should not attempt to reduce this size of population in a large amount. That is to say, the fertility rate of the policy should not be lower than replacing competence from generation to generation. Someone says: "From 2000 to 2003, the grain yield of China has already dropped for four years in succession, who can guarantee grain yield 50 years later is more than now? " In fact, China's grain yield dropped from 2000 to 2003, the main reason was a question of the agricultural policy. Father Yuan LongPing of the hybrid rice of China says: "The main factor is that peasants have not planted the enthusiasm of the grain, he does not plant your better thing, his kind sustains losses in business, this is that have hurt the peasants for cheap grain. " Once, confirmation that he goes to the south of Hunan to carry on the super rice, an old farmer says these words to him, Yuan LongPing says: "He will come over, he says I should thanks you especially, Mr. Yuan, I have planted the field all one's life, have never seen such high output. But in addition on one hand, he say I blame you, you engaged in output so high, the corn is cheap now, he says I have no benefit. " From 2004, because implemented the measure of cancelling Huinong such as the agricultural tax, the grain yield begins to rebound again. From 2004 to 2008, China's grain yield has realized " five is increased " . Some national population has already entered negative growth now, but NPG is by no means the goal that these countries pursue, on the contrary, a lot of countries are encouraging bearing. For example, after Japan is since entering NPG 2005, increasingly many Japanese realized, also can recover after the economic depression, but little son take until aged society to restrain Japan from enter into long-term the intersection of restriction and factor that recover. From the demographic viewpoint, Japan is beginning to fade. The population of countries such as Japan, Germany,etc. enters negative growth, this is a helpless thing, because it is unable to be effective that these countries have already tried their best to encourage bearing; And China will enter NPG in the future, " attribute to " to a great extent Birth control. The experiences of the countries all over the world show, once finish the substantive transition from high fertility rate to low fertility rate, the rise to be impelled fertility rate is almost impossible.

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