The population pressure can't bear bearing? The expert proposes having one child per couple more strictly

The population pressure can't bear bearing? The expert proposes having one child per couple more strictly
Materials picture: On May 27, play Xiao Han of the computer game after having father in love, one's own son brought the game in totally different life to him. Xiao Han and wife's little horse is all only sons in the eighties, they had one's own children last year after getting married, two generations of such only sons make up a special family. Began at the beginning of the eighties of last century, China confirmed planning the child-bearing policy as the fundamental state policy, the only-child became the general phenomenon from then on. China News Service take place Liao climb, take a photograph of " current the intersection of plan and child-bearing policy should change to not further stricter " ' have one child per couple '. But I am a minority now, there are less people who agree to my view, even someone scolds me, also someone calls me ' contemporary Ma Yinchu '. " On March 11, in the guard stations of Anhui delegation of 11 second sessions of National People's Congress, deputy to the National People's Congress, famous economist, Cheng EnFu of president of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Marxism research institute state frankly when being interviewed by " China's economic weekly magazine ", he plans to write his view " Propose " Refer to the National People's Congress. It is introduced, through course of trials and hardship and hard efforts of 30 years, our country realize the intersection of population reproduction and type by high born, low death, high growth to low born, low death, historical transition of low growth, the sum of the women's fertility rate (average each woman's quantity of children born in all one's life) Drop to about present 1.8 from implementing 5.8 before birth control, make 1,300 million people in our country postpone coming 4 on day, have relieved the pressures of resources, the environment effectively, has promoted economic development, social progress and improvement of people's livelihood. However, although the development of the population of our country has gone through the historical enormous change, but it is still enormous to come from the pressure that people's inertia increases. In a sense, development and policy of China's population are designed to face a new crossroad again. How should future China population develop? How do we reply? On some great population issues of concerning the overall situation, academia, birth control administrative department, do not reach the real common understanding yet. " population pressure " : The ones that can't bear bearing heavy? Enter the new century, our country still faces the developing state of more complicated population. On the premise of steady low birth level, our country would successively welcome and trouble age population, total population and old people three major peak in the first half of this century. It is reported, the population of our country will increase at the speed of 80,010 million per year at present. Predict, in 2010 and 2020 years, people's total amount of our country will be up to 1,370 million and 1,460 million respectively according to the total fertility rate 1.8 at present; The peak of total amount of population will appear by 2033, is up to about 1,500 million. Moreover our country demographic transition differ greatly among the area at present, low to bear water, rebound dangerously before the level. The birth level among the areas is uneven, only Shanghai, Beijing NPG appears in the whole country. In the countryside, Midwest and poverty-stricken area, the masses are still relatively strong when bearing the will, birth level is still relatively high. In January of this year, the population who national population and Family Planning Commission announce develops " eleven five " It shows to plan to assess in middle period, such problems as the risk of rebounding of low birth level remains as before, conducts and solves setting up yet, working difficulty of people's family planning of population issue mechanism and strengthens are still stressed. Meanwhile, the fast senilization question of population begins to be " aggravated" . Population and employment of State Statistics Bureau statistics show to manage " The situation sample investigation of national change of population in 2007 " Data reveal,is it proportion of to national total population in year old and population in 65 of our country up to by 8.1% already, and aging population is still in fast development state, therefore the elderly bringing it inhabit and demand questions such as the source of income,etc. urgently to pay close attention to. As the developing countries with the largest population, the state that our country's population and resource, environmental relation are nervous will exist for a long time. The cultivated land of per person of our country is 1/3 of the average level in the world at present, the water resource of per person is 1/4, the mineral resources of per person are 1/2, per person's resources amount arrange and rank 120th in world synthetically. According to the present demand level, the total demand of grain of our country is 603 million tons by 2020, it was 663 million tons in 2033, on the whole than 20% to 30% higher of production capacity of 500 million tons of existing grain, the food safety faces the severe challenge. The overall trend that worsens of ecological environment of our country has not been turned back at all yet, the sustainable index of the environment ranks the 14th counted backwards in 146 countries and regions. The fact indicates, the question of size of population remains one of the critical questions of restricting socio-economic development of our country for a long time, the quality of the population, structure will become the main factor which influences coordinating and sustainable development of economics and society with distributing the problem gradually, it is very arduous to conduct the task that population develops with economy, the society, resource, environment in harmony. The expert points out, the total amount of population increases continuously, the structural contradiction of population is conspicuous, the quality of the population is overall and non- high, it is in large scale that people flow and move, and such questions as the contradiction of population and resource environment is becoming sharper, it will be fast continuously to economy to increase and exert a great influence with all-side social progress, and concern directly that builds realization of the goal of well-off society in an all-round way. " have one child per couple " : The demands of national interests? In the face of the still severe population situation, Cheng EnFu has proposed continuing insisting and implementing stricter" has one child per couple " Policy,namely whether " whether it is in urban and rural areas for one child, it is special for two child, it be be be forbidden by three child, rewarded to fetusedded " ,And so as to make total population very fast " Reduce after accusing of " ,Promote the quality of the population comparatively fast, catch up with per capita gross national product, per person's national power and per person's living standard of the American Europe's Day comparatively fast. To that the scholars of some economics, demography and sociology maintain in recent years that resume two viviparity and breed the policy in an all-round way immediately, so as to solve the so-called senilization problem, Cheng EnFu thinks: "This kind of policy is inadvisable, because it will make China's population base continue increasing inappropriately, unfavorable to the solving of a lot of problems, a great deal of respects such as for instance environmental problem, resource question, employment question, per person's living standard question. " "Reach the senilization level under lower condition of the per capita income, it is the showing especially of superiority of socialist system. The workforce is still a large amount of relative surplus on one hand, on the other hand reach the senilization standard, this is ' structure of two yuan ' of a population field, the work needing being is not to increase population, but do a good job of the elderly's social security conscientiously. " He emphasizes, " we can't analyze through the way that view that the so-called individual freedom bore right, then will result in having no freedom controlled to bear, this's core and key disputed. " Li XiaoPing, Assistant Researcher of research institute, population of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, thinks, the size of population of China is still over-surplus, without The absolute reducing of the size of population, China is unable to catch up with going in the developed country from living standard and living environment. Does he maintain that further reduces fertility rate, realizes the zero growth rate of population with higher speed prominently? �� Do four reef Die silks of mist herdsman of outstanding talent of Ke flatter and collate Cou ��'s clump? Bring Chinese people down to 81 billion and strive to make it lower 00 years later, drop to 3,500 million 200 years later, thus solve overpopulating and long-term nervous problem of per person resource in China at all. According to calculating, such as implementing" have one child per couple " Child-bearing policy,2024 year can reach peak value of population growth,peak value population is for 1,393 million people. And " unlock two children " The total amount of the population of the child-bearing policy will continue increasing, can reach the peak value of population growth by 2045, the population of peak value is 1,550 million people. Hereafter, " unlocked two children " within quite a long time The intersection of population and total amount of scheme keep in 1,500 million above people, population 1,533 million people in total amount by 2100. And implement " A child " The total amount of the population of the child-bearing policy continues reducing, it is 670 million people by 2100. The disparity of total amount of the population of two kinds of schemes rises to 863 million people gradually. "Even according to consumption mode and price-level for 1998, our country it raises one childs to be pregnant to begin to 16 years old from mother, it is 58,000 yuan that the total cost of maintenance paying in national average need is lowest, it is at most 67,000 yuan. " Cheng EnFu introduces, with the development of social economy, the improvement of the national economic strength, educate the constant rising that is invest, the total cost of maintenance paying in average need of each of children 016 years old in order to raise of our country must rise greatly. In this way, because " unlock two children " And several hundred million people given birth to more, will bring the heavy financial burden to family and the society. So, he proposes: Our country not only can't relax the current child-bearing policy but also continue bringing the birth level of the urban and rural areas down to this bottom line of a child of a couple, namely the strict one " Have one child per couple " Child-bearing policy. Implement " have one child per couple " The child-bearing policy can be through controlling the scale of each family on the microcosmic, control the size of population of the society on the macroscopic, to promote the developing in harmony of family and social economy. "The population control policy with rational science not merely can get benefits of people of controlling the population size, will also obtain corresponding economic benefits and health benefit. " Prosperous and strong to transfer kindness Cheng, government should pay attention to the intersection of population control and cost, benefit of policy analyze, formulation and implementation of the policy being based on this kind of scientific analysis, could come, obtain with as low as possible, cost that can accept by different fields as high as possible favorable to countrying and each benefiting of family on the whole. Meanwhile, he thinks: Only-child's policy certainly will cause the overweight family pension load finally like what a lot of people worry about, " have one child per couple " Child-bearing policy and population age with higher speed and family burden strengthen have positive connection, " two children add the interval " The child-bearing policy may present the consequence that the macroscopical people's failing to control, micro family burden fails to lighten too. However, so far as situation which the reporter interviews at present, hold " have one child per couple " Expert, scholar who bear the view have actually few number. " unlock two children " : Human nature, cultural and educational return? Professor Mu GuangZong objects to the people in Peking University " Have one child per couple " Scholar one of. "Only-child's family is a risk family in essence, the society that only-child's population took the subject is a risk society in essence. In the course of recommending constructing ' the harmonious society ', we have actually entered the back family planning society that a risk not totally realized yet accumulated and broke out to coexist too, or have to face fertility rate straightly and drop the back family planning era of the consequence fast and greatly. " Professor Mu GuangZong thinks, only-child's family has " six major risks " at least in the population in Peking University . It is the child's growth risk at first. Mainly die young, the risk of the serious illness. Especially to middle-aged and old parents, this is a crushing risk. Secondly it is the child's risk of becoming a useful person. " only firewood difficult fever, only son's difficulty are taught " . Because of the reason such as being very scientific of focusing of parents' love excessively on, having too high expectations, raising and teaching the way, if the child is good-for-nothing, do not always have it by becoming instead it is hard. The third is a conflict risk of the marriage. The unstability of only-child's marriage and family is very big, family's interpersonal contradictions are generally difficult to mediate, sharpen broken family, single-parent family thereupon increase, thus lead to the fact the social disharmonious factor increases. The fourth is the risk of supporting parents of the family. In with complete social security system cases, the old parents of only-child's family still face life and care for the risk, spirit and support the risk even economic and support the risk. The fifth is the development risk of the society. The only-child must move towards the society, besides above-mentioned risk, its individual character issue, whether the intersection of intelligence and quality develop out-of-balance lacking the intersection of group and spirit of cooperation,etc. make future the intersection of competition and strength of society, cooperate too strength, cohesiveness receive enormous to challenge. The sixth is the national national defence risk. Once the war happens or resist the natural calamity etc., while needing only-child and his family to devote, it may be one " The severe topic " . "' risk ' of only-child's family lies in ' uniqueness ', face the unpredictable risk, a lot of families become ' collapse at the first blow ', very fragile. This, require us make and improve policy, want, try hard humanization, in view of the rational demand of the family, the risk ' minimizes ' of bearing the only son as much as possible. " Mu GuangZong points out. He says, the risk should be prevented in advance, but not compensate afterwards. And evade the best way of the risk now, it is to " unlock two children " ,This is that the far-sighted society composes right, because the right ensures the happiness, freedom brings about an advance. "The safe development and family's happy development of population should become value orientations of the social mainstream. It grows one to be still two and when bear, this private the intersection of right and thing in the range, individual, married couple and family should have power and freedom chosen, the country should not interfere. " He states outright one. As the young monobasic demographer, Mu GuangZong thinks: Unlock in an all-round way " Two children " It is the return of a kind of cultural and educational human nature, relatively accord with " the will of the people of national conditions " ,Accord with bearing the will of people, accord with human-oriented scientific development view and people's view. Get out of implement birth control just, will it be will it be the end the seventies last century just, " unlock two children " Actually one return of history, " one lack, more than three pieces, two are just right " . Mu GuangZong says: From the viewpoint of history, it is to " had one child per couple " that was established to resume two viviparity and breed the policy in an all-round way since the initial stage of the eighties of last century The exceeding of the policy With development. Adjusting the child-bearing policy can relieve aging population and workforce's relative shortage question to a certain extent, but can only achieve the limited result of mending the fold after the sheep have been stolen. So, he agrees in adjusting child-bearing policy, view and method to try hard to expand citizen's independent right to choose early. "In fact, do not I object to government's leading idea? ��'s gruel of ������ emperor's rose Xi gruel sprouts and reads aloud saying �� nurse is strong in entangling Sleeve Shuo Chu pay Pan of � tall building The nurse entangles and connects Ping to permit ������'s second of the stool joyously �� Wen brag Gui of Yi ���ҬҪ� It is beautiful to wrap eye pharmaceutical up Wen Lei ��! Pace up and down The waving annotates � and mends E �� Mo �� Jian industry and takes off Huan Tuo �'s badger scrupulously in accordance with �� Jing's rabbit! ? Mu GuangZong emphasizes, reduces the increment method of population to accord with the demands for welfare distribution system of planned economy simply, but is contrary to market economic system with independent freedom. The historical experience shows, his drawback has been already serious day by day for the simple reduction measure, cost and risk are larger and larger, lead to the fact the constitutive property of population development is out-of-balance, lose more than gain. Until low birth level stabilize and begin to pass low the intersection of direction and gradual progress quite already, the population control of China should be turned to population and adjusted and controlled and optimized with population early, population should turn a negative growth strategy to population and coordinate the development strategy proportionally. "The child-bearing policy of the plan will be adjusted sooner or later, just a time question. But delayed a long time, cost and risk accumulated will be enormouser, and these could be originally avoided in advance to a certain extent. " He says. " two children progressively " : The direction of population development? In July of 2007, national Population Planning Committee press spokesman Yu XueJun expresses when being interviewed by media's reporter, our country of now is except Henan Province, the regulations in the other province-governed municipalities all stipulate: Couple are only-children's, can give birth to two children. This does not " mean planning the change of the child-bearing policy " . It is introduced, because our country is vast in territory, social development and population are very uneven when developing. All parts are in different periods for development, the population issue has very great differences, so the concrete child-bearing policy stipulates by all parts. For example, the policy that one couple, one child that what province and city such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Sichuan,etc. implemented is; 19 provinces stipulate, in the countryside, if the first child is girls, allow a child of regeneration; Hainan, Yunnan, Qinghai, Ningxia, countryside of 5 provinces of Xinjiang, it was the policy of bearing two children that was implemented; In some people's less minority areas such as Tibet, allow to bear two or more children. 6 provinces stipulate, in the countryside, one party is the only-child's, can bear two children. "Should adjust the child-bearing policy of the plan progressively, but I disagree with the strict method ' have one child per couple '. On condition that cause population to over rise and fall, can carry out the transition to ' two children ' progressively, the total direction is to allow to bear two children. " The People's University of China society and Professor of population institute Peng Du think, " should make it bear the will and combine together by child-bearing policy and people not to plan as much as possible. But at once ' unlock two children ' at present, it is unrealistic. " This, with one of our country's demographic founders, famous demographer, the society of the People's University of China are extremely similar to deans of people Professor Zhai ZhenWu's view. Zhai ZhenWu shows, should " realize two children progressively " when being interviewed by " China's economic weekly magazine " ,But not overall " Unlock two children " . For there is the expert that thinks it is the birth control that causesing" The aging population question " ,Du Peng does not approve. He says: "Aging population is a multifactor course that forms, birth control plays the impetus in the course of accelerating birth level and dropping. It is to depend on sound social security system and corresponding social policy to solve the main relevant aged problem of aging population, but not only by bearing more, go on the old road that we can't get back to ' raise sons to support one in one's old age '. " Meanwhile, Du Peng thinks, will " want by energetical development economy, improve the people's livelihood, perfect the social security system, improve the social policy to promote social progress in the future, but not by controlling the population method to improve every economic indicator more strictly. Promote the economic level by the method of this kind of reduction denominator, implement stricter plan child-bearing policy, will produce larger social cost, it is not a good method. " State policies: " steady low birth level " On January 15 of 2009, at national population and birth control working conference, national population and Li Bin, director of Family Planning Commission, emphasize, the overall thinking of people's development is " steady low birth level in the next period, improve the health of the people, improve population structure, lead population to be distributed rationally, promote the large country in population to transform into powerful country of human resources, promote population and economy, society, resource, environment coordinating and sustainable development. " Article 18 of " population and birth control law in the People's Republic of China " that began to implement on September 1, 2002 stipulate: National steady current child-bearing policy, encourage citizen's late marriage and childbirth, recommend a couple's bearing a child; Ones that accord with the terms of provision of the law or regulation, can demand to arrange to bear the second children. The concrete way is stipulated by province, autonomous region and municipality directly under the Central Government people's congress or its standing committee. Unless as to this, think Yu XueJun, there is be three piece reason of respect,it determine must current child-bearing policies steady: First, " eleven five " In period, our country just faces a baby boom; Second, some local regulations make some fine setting to child-bearing policy, to to bear terms, relax to some extent two child; Third, any adjustment with great child-bearing policy, may present the consequence of the population big rise and big fall, unfavorable to population to develop steadily and healthily. Li Bin thinks, fertility rate should keep at an appropriate level, the too high or pass low and is unfavorable to population and develop proportionally for a long time and coordinated development with economy, the society. Steady low birth level remains primary task of population and birth control work of the present stage, must keep stability and continuity of the population policy. With the next period at present, it is the important stage that steady low birth level, pool solve the population issue. Change: Is the opportunity still unripe? The expert thinks, should adjust the child-bearing policy of the plan, change population structure, delay " flex point of Lewis " (workforce supplies from surplus to the turning point in short) Arrival. "Now has not arrived in such a period of ' the flex point of Lewis ' yet, has not presented the phenomenon that the aging population and workforce's shortage which have been similar to Europe have appeared at the same time. We workforces are still increasing, and will last some time, and presented certain formal surplus. Even Workforce's quantity begins to drop, does not mean either the workforce presents shortage within short time. " Cheng EnFu and Du Peng both hold the same view. Calculate, calculated by population 64 years old 16 years old, would reach 990 million people's peak value in 2016 according to the party concerned, it was 870 million people in 2050, even 28 million people more than 2000, is higher than the total of the workforce of developed country at present. Therefore, by the look of population structure characteristic, our country has troubled age population to be in large scale, workforce resources are sufficient. However, because the workforce of our country does not have high quality, the ones that influenced and restricted the human resources advantage were given full play to. Work in primary schools of people of age and the following schooling proportion and up to 47.6% in the countryside at present, the ones that present in some places " The civilian worker neglects " Mainly " Worker neglect the skill" ,But not real labor shortage. So, put forth effort to improve the health of the people, build the powerful country of human resources, has already become the key that pool has solved the population issue, improved the key competitiveness, guaranteed the sustainability of economic growth. In addition, relevant experts think, aging population is the important phenomenon presented in transition period of population of our country, also people's development trend of developed country in the 21st century. Can't rely on to solve aging population and bear children more, but the intelligent level that should rely on the scientific and technological progress to bring improves the high labor productivity created, to accumulate the wealth for family and social pension. Cheng EnFu, president of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Marxism research institute, does not think our country can not merely relax the current child-bearing policy, and will continue bringing the birth level of the urban and rural areas down to " A child of a couple " This bottom line, namely strict" have one child per couple " Child-bearing policy. Through controlling the scale of each family on the microcosmic, control the size of population of the society on the macroscopic, to promote the developing in harmony of family and social economy. Mu GuangZong, Professor of Peking University, points out, " risk " of only-child's family Lie in " The uniqueness " . Face the unpredictable risk, a lot of families " collapse at the first blow " , the fragility very much. This, require us make and improve policy, want, try hard humanization, in view of the rational demand of the family, " minimize " the risk that the only son bears as much as possible . Du Peng, Professor of the People's University of China, says, will want by energetical development economy, improve the people's livelihood, perfect the social security system, improve the social policy to promote social progress in the future, but not by controlling the population method to improve every economic indicator more strictly. Promote the economic level by the method of this kind of reduction denominator, implement stricter plan child-bearing policy, will produce larger social cost. (reporter Wang XiaoZong / report of Beijing)

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