Will two child policies adjust?

Will two child policies adjust?
Staff reporter Han Lu The relevant policy presents the fine setting " twelve five " " one has two babies alone " during this time Possible will it be December 31 last year, Beijing Municipal Government revise " Beijing social cost of maintenance collect management " some clauses in the 24 rules. According to the relevant regulation after the modification, couple apply to bear two children's for the only-child, so long as the wife satisfies the preparental interval for no less than 4 years or age is not lower than 28 years old, needn't pay the social cost of maintenance again. And before the this, this city double only-child bear, also need to pay a proportion of social cost of maintenance by two child person. Have media comments think method of Beijing relax pairs of only-child bear second terms of child at certain meaning, take a little step in this direction of relaxing the policy safely and having one child per couple progressively. Guessing too, will only-child's policy become flexible among the workshops? When the reporter solves to Beijing population and family planning committee relevant person in charge on this question, it's time to be responsible for being called, give no comment to this media comments. But he expresses Beijing " Do not encourage giving up two child indexes in the policy " . Not long ago, national population and Li Bin, director of committee of family planning claimed while accepting media's special visit, " twelve five " During this time, our country will continue adhering to the fundamental state policy of birth control, will improve the policy progressively, the moderately low birth level of the stability, promote the balanced development for a long time of population. The reporter looks over " Eleven five " The item of the policy of birth control, among them there is " stable population's low birth level " Statement. And if this statement is here " Twelve five " If really the quilt " The low birth level moderately of the stability " Statement replacement,it is so "it is low in stable population birth level " With " low birth level moderately of the stability " Between delicate different,it is relax further also two child policy not to mean, there was what experts revealed a few days ago to that is " A spouse can bear two children for the only-child's family " ? National population and relevant person of information office of family planning committee said when being interviewed by reporter a few days ago, there is not change arrangement, " twelve five " at present in the child-bearing policy of the plan Let go of two rumor of child during this time according to. " two child schemes " All reasonable in fact that the policy is put and do not put that the educational circles are discussed for a long time, about " one has two babies alone " The news unlocked spreads among the workshops for a long time. It is that the population issue expert He YaFu reveals to the media to be recent: "Our country will regard Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Jiangsu and Zhejiang as the pilot project, allowing couple so long as have a person who is an only-child, can give birth to the second child. Moreover, this policy will be expanded within 5 years to the whole country. " The Professor of sociology department of Peking University, China's demographic population policy committee's committee member Lu JieHua say, pedestrian's mouth policy has already now led to the fact it has been a bit high that the population structure of our country presents the sex ratio, and the sustainability questions of senilization and workforce, " only-child's policy must change, when, which places that need planning is only, change in such a manner that how is it. " The worry to low fertility rate at present in our country, the scholar thinks the important basis that should unlock two children in recent years. It is generally acknowledged, the fertility rate of the total (average each woman bears the child's quantity in all one's life) It is 2.1 o'clock, it is roughly balanced to take the place of with the size of population while taking the place of, above here, population increases gradually, under it reduce. In 2000, the total fertility rate announced in the fifth national census was 1.22, the data that and the official side announced were 1.8. Award and say, educational circles are usually lower than 1.5 of being called " very low fertility rate " fertility rate of total in solemn mere religions of people in Peking University ,Lower than 1.3 being called " ultralow fertility rate " . Urban areas of our country generally implement only-child's policy, the fertility rate of the sum of much urban population is even lower than 1.0 notably. He thinks, it is to improve the policy to evade the best way of the risk at present, encourage having two babies. The population issue expert He YaFu's view is clearer. He thinks, in view of China's present too high birth sex ratio, should realize " low birth level moderately of the stability " Expectancy,the China one population replacement competence is should at 2.31, that is to say whether there aren't each pair of married coupleses average. And bear the investigation result of the will to reveal many times, bearing the will without exceeding 2 children of each average married couple in China now. So, allow " one have two babies alone " It is not enough yet, should encourage the policy that is born. But population and professor of Institute for Development Studies original and new view of institute of economics of Nankai University are slightly different. He says, the population that baby boom was born in after the middle period of the eighties of last century will enter marriage and childbirth period successively, that is to say, bear vigorous the intersection of woman and total amount of issue increase, meanwhile, accord with " pair alone " partly The married couple of the condition, will bear the second child. So even if policy take place change, baby born number can rise year by year while being natural too. He introduces, as to " two children " The adjustment of the policy, relevant expert's implementing schemes and steps that the situations of different areas are being concrete in research at present, still need time to explore. " two children in the policy " It is cold to meet Give " It is low to bear inertia " Step on the foot brake last December, is revealed by " research report of China's family child-birth way " which the young research center of Shanghai released, suppose the child-bearing policy allows all young married couple to bear two children, nearly 70% of the young married couple choose to give up two children, main reason that give up, " the cost too high child-bearing nowadays now, afford to raise " ( 79.5%) ," time not enough distribution of the energy " ( 64.9%) . Municipal population and relevant person of family planning committee in Nanjing said to the media not long ago, Nanjing accords with every year " Alone" Family that condition can have two babies have as many as ten thousand at more least, send out two the intersection of child and application to the intersection of family planning and department " whether pair alone " Families are only about 100 pieces. Lu JieHua says, because the influence that the plan is with deep-rooted child-bearing policy, the improvement of and life cost, educational cost,etc., it is low to bear the making type of thinking and already take shape in the family of new generation quietly. At present, of our country gradual reducing of fertility rate the trend of the times, low to bear culture, reveal the clue. Net friend " iceberg kindling material " It is a ready-to-be mother, she is qualified to have two babies, but not " wanted two children's plan yet at present " . "If the first child is that a girl is easy to handle, if two children are boys, I will come to give them some to buy house. " But new the worry of mother aperture is not the same. "If I am under the age of 30 may still consider taking another one, would resolutely refuse to think of now. Give birth to the child and dawdle for time very much, if takes another one, I have gone to work for 35 years old again. " She says to reporters, the present person goes to school for long time, graduated late, it is just accordingly late to marry and give birth to babies, have two really very much difficult to make a decision child again. Face " two children in the policy " It is cold to meet, Mu GuangZong proposes, it is low to bear culture once takes shape, independent of the inertia of economic and social development, lead to the fact resident's will fertility rate is reduced. "Once such cultural inertia takes shape, even transfer the policy guidance to encouraging bearing, also it is difficult to improve fertility rate. " JieHua Lu think adjustment of policy should in " low to bear inertia " It is difficult before prevention that not great. "Administering the policymakers whose population worked should delegate power progressively, the decision of letting parents do ' grow or not ' by oneself. The later the policy is adjusted, the more it is difficult to bring into effection. " No matter what view the experts have on that population policy is adjusted, what deep research, they may be waiting for a node, that is the sixth census result. "The sixth census whether ' twelve five ' that begin 2011 year plan, offer policy basis. " The population expert is easy to be rich and virtuous to be thought, the sixth census result was announced, our country or welcoming the great adjustment of the population policy.

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